Sunday, April 1, 2007

republican presidential candidates

firstly, i would like to end my vow of neutrality that i made in the last post. i just needed to temporarily be neutral to think things over, but i have opinions again now, and things are back to normal.

there is a very small but growing wing of the republican party which is actually opposed to president bush, or at least opposed to the war in iraq, to secret prisons, to warrantless wiretapping, to torture, to gigantic budget deficits, to “amnesty” for illegal immigrants, to the failed response to hurricane katrina, and/or to unfunded mandates like no child left behind and the medicare prescription drug benefit. recently matthew dowd, a top adviser to president bush from 1999 thru the 2004 election who was karl rove’s deputy, came out against the war and the bush administration’s policies, and said that his faith in george w. bush had been misplaced. and representative ron paul of texas and senator chuck hagel of nebraska are both running for president in the republican party on anti-war, anti-bush platforms. those 2 candidates represent the anti-bush wing of the republican party, which is still in its infancy, since most republicans still have such a misplaced allegiance to their failed president. so who are the real republican candidates for president, the ones that might actually win? well there are 5 that i think could win.

rudy giuliani, former mayor of new york city... he is #1 in the republican polls even though he is pro-abortion and pro-gay rights. why? because he supports bush and was instrumental in responding to 9/11, and the media promoted him as a hero. but to the religious right, he is an archenemy. and his style of leadership is said to be quite authoritarian, so he might appeal to the authoritarian movement, but not to freedom-minded people who are opposed to things like torture and warrentless wiretaps and secret prisons, people who support habeas corpus and the geneva conventions and the bill of rights. rudy giuliani is a war hawk, so on national security and foreign and military affairs, he is very right-wing. however, his center-left social views might keep him from becoming president. also, he has been through many divorces, and he lived with open practicing homosexuals while mayor of new york city. he has been through many scandals, and prior to 9/11, was quite unpopular. although crime rates in new york city fell sharply under his tenure, there was alleged to be police brutality. and he does have a few right-wing social views, like when he wanted to outlaw a painting of the virgin mary made from some type of animal shit. but if he becomes president, this would probably make the religious right much less influential in the republican party, which is a good thing.

john mccain has been promoted by the media as front-runner even though rudy giuliani is front-runner. senator john mccain of arizona has a long history of fighting against the rest of his own party, and being like a lone voice in the wilderness on certain issues. one of his assets in the republican primary is his extreme pro-war hawkishness. he wants to escalate the war in iraq and send more troops than any other mainstream politicians are proposing. just about the only people who would send more troops than mccain are rush limbaugh and ann coulter... president bush’s troop increases are quite modest by comparison. but mitch mcconnell is the leader of the senate republicans, and was the leader of the opposition to john mccain when mccain got together with my personal hero, senator russ feingold of wisconsin, to introduce the mccain-feingold act, which put in place the campaign finance reform that took effect between the 2002 and 2004 election cycles. now, that campaign finance reform is still very controversial and disliked in republican circles, even though it probably hurt the democrats more than the republicans. the mccain-feingold act is what made 527 groups like moveon.org and the swift boat veterans for truth become so prominent. but 527 groups cannot promote candidates, they are only allowed to attack them, according to the law. at least that is what i read somewhere. quite odd. anyway, john mccain is reviled and disliked in many republican circles, because of his treacherous opposition to the party line on so many occasions. he is considered too independent-minded and disloyal. that is why he had to prove his loyalty to the party in 2004 by rejecting john kerry’s love letter that asked him to be john kerry’s vice president, and instead john mccain strongly supported and campaigned for george w. bush. john mccain is quite a chameleon/chimera figure, always changing his stripes.

senator sam brownback of kansas is the only real party-line “movement conservative” who has a shot at the republican presidential nomination. so, it is strange that he has not attracted more support. if republicans want continuity and someone who will continue the right-wing party-line leadership of george w. bush, he is the only real option. he is the candidate for real republicans, the type who still support george w. bush after all the bad things bush has done. he is the one who shares the ideology of the right-wing base of the party, on all issues. but perhaps he is not getting support because the more pragmatic members of the party saw the writing on the wall with the defeat of rick santorum in pennsylvania, and perhaps the party might abandon its social conservatism. sam brownback is the only one who can preserve that social conservatism. he is the only real republican running, but i wonder if republicans realize that.

former massachusetts governor mitt romney is a joke. he has flip-flopped on every issue in order to try to get votes. he only has supporters because of the media hype and because he is a talented public speaker. perhaps he can win using his charisma. but being a mormon, he has many enemies on the religious right, even though he shares much of their agenda, or at least pretends to. but how could anyone trust this man who can’t even make up his mind on abortion? i do not understand why he is being considered a major contender, because he is a complete intellectual lightweight, inexperienced, not well known, and the world’s #1 flip-flopper. he tries to show his conservatism through reagan-worship. but i am sure that people can see right through his shallow ploy at presenting himself as a conservative republican, and see that he is just a charismatic pragmatist with no ideology to speak of, other than his mormon religion which is so reviled. of course, bill clinton was a charismatic pragmatist with no ideology, but he is incredibly smart and was a great scholar who studied at oxford under a very prestigious scholarship. i doubt mitt romney is smart enough to pull it off like bill clinton did.

the 5th major republican candidate for president is newt gingrich. newt might or might not run; we do not know yet. but he is still quite popular in republican circles for his leadership of the republican congress, and for how he took control of congress away from democrats in 1994. newt gingrich is a brilliant but misguided genius, and he is also a well-known hypocrite who has had plenty of extramarital affairs. it is rather doubtful that conservative republicans would forgive him for his failures in his personal life and his well-known hypocrisy. but with his towering intellect, he may be able to devise a plan to win. however, he is still a quite controversial figure, and would almost undoubtedly lose the general election if he got the nomination, since many people who are not republican have a lingering dislike for him because of his hypocrisy and because of the failures of congress under his leadership and since that time.

one last thing: my sister liz has a blog here and there might be a major announcement on there soon, but first she has to tell everyone she knows about it and i will certainly not break the news before she does. but i hope you visit her blog and see if there is anything new, and if not, check again later. i am very proud of my sister and wish her all the best.

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